Tuesday 20 March 2012

Canada's U18 Prospects

The CHL regular season has come to a close and a small amount of teams have seen their seasons come to an end.  There is still a huge opportunity for those undrafted prospects to showcase their ability in a high intensity competition, the U18 World Championship being held April 12-22 in Brno and Znojmo, Czech Republic.

The coaching staff has been named with Jesse Wallin of Red Deer taking the helm, flanked by Todd Gill of Kingston and Gordie Dwyer of the PEI Rocket.  Along with the scouting staff of Hockey Canada, they will be charged with putting together the roster who's job it will be to win the U18 Championship for their country.

Canada's roster will be made up of CHL players not playing in the playoffs or whose teams have been eliminated in round 1.

Here are the possibilities:


Eliminated teams

The Locks:

Red Deer Rebels (WHL):  Matt Dumba - An almost absolute lock to go in the top 10 of this year's NHL draft, Dumba was the captain of Canada's U18 Team that took home gold at the Ivan Hlinka and should be a lock to wear the C again for Canada this time around.  Especially considering his head coach in Red Deer will be running the show this time around.

Erie Otters (OHL): Adam Pelech - A surprise selection for the Ivan Hlinka roster considering Canada's wealth of 94 born defenders, Pelech has improved all year and should be a lock to return to the Red and White.

Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL): Matt Murray - A standout during the Top Prospect Showcase in Kelowna, Murray is highly regarded with Hockey Canada goaltending consultant and coach, Ron Tugnutt and will have the opportunity to atone for his disapointment in being left off the Ivan Hlinka roster.  Even if other goaltenders emerge, Murray can likely only be challenged by Calgary's Chris Driedger, Val d'Or's Tremblay or Oshawa's Altshuler.  He's a safe bet to be at least the 2nd goaltender for this squad.

Prince Albert Raiders (WHL): Mike Winther - A speedy forward who has turned heads all season, Winther's game translates well to the International style and he should be a lock to at least crack the 4th line, but could even find himself on a 2nd or 3rd line with potential PP minutes.

Prince George Cougars (WHL): Troy Bourke - A very talented offensive playmaker, Bourke has been thrown to the wolves a bit this year in the WHL but continues to drive forward.  He will be highly motivated and ready to play for his country.

The Good Shots

Sault Saint Marie Greyhounds (OHL) - Giancarlo Curcuruto - A very talented and under rated prospect in my opinion, Curcuruto was very close to making the Ivan Hlinka team in the summer and sits with an excellent shot, though not a lock, to make the team this time around.

Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) - Branden Troock - A gritty and hard working power forward, Troock fits a mould that Hockey Canada loves and he could find himself with a role playing spot when all is said and done, especially after proving his clutch ability in an MVP performance at the CHL Top Prospect Game.


Other Players with Slight Hopes

WHL
Lethbridge - Jay Merkley - Underaged playmaker, well know to those in Calgary.
Prince Albert - Josh Morrissey - Very well rounded underaged defender turning heads out west.
Prince George - Alex Forsberg - Undersized and underaged but a highly touted playmaker.
Prince George - Devon Fordyce - Goaltender with short term competition experience and success.
Red Deer - Bolton Pouliot - Not likely to take a spot, but still a goaltending consideration
Seattle - Connor Honey - Gritty ball of energy who never stops competing.
Swift Current - Coda Gordon - Big numbers on bad team, but cooled as season carried on.

OHL
Kingston - Ryan Kujawinski - Big underage centre is one of Todd Gill's go to guys already.
Peterborough - Nick Ritchie - Underage speedster is primed to be an offensive machine.
Peterborough - Slater Koekoek - Injured, highly unlikely to return, but name should be there as he would be on the team if not for being sidelined.
SS Marie - Darnell Nurse - Big hulking underaged defender, worth at least the conversation.

QMJHL
None to consider at this time


The Playoff Teams

WHL
Tri City - Connor Rankin
Everett - Nick Walters, Jari Ericsson
Preferred - Rankin would be a welcome addition to the offense.
Likelihood - Not much of a chance Tri Cities loses this one.  Walters likely a bubble player, Ericsson likely gets spoken about but won't crack the roster

Portland - Derrick Pouliot, Brendan Leipsic
Kelowna - Damon Severson, Carter Rigby
Pref: Portland's Pouliot and Leipsic would be shoeins.
Likelihood - Kelowna falls to high powered Winterhawks.  Severson stands a real shot at cracking the squad, Rigby will get serious consideration as a role player but likely doesn't make the team in the end.

Kamloops - none
Victoria - Brandon Magee, Steven Hodges, Zane Jones
Pref - The choice of 3 vs. 0 makes it easy.
Likelihood - Victoria doesn't stand much of a chance to win this series, Magee, if healthy has earned a great reputation and should make the team, Hodges and Jones would both fit nicely but likely find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble when the team is chosen.

Spokane - none
Vancouver - none

Calgary - Chris Driedger
Brandon - Ryan Pulock, Eric Roy, Tyrell Seaman
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Driedger would be a solid number one or two goaltender but Calgary is favored to win this series.  Offensively inclined D men Pulock and underager Roy are a nice consolation to chose from, and big strong power forward Seaman adds a nice dynamic as well.  Pulock would be a no brainer to crack the D, Roy and Seaman would likely fall victim to the numbers game, but will get long looks.

Edmonton - Reinhart
Kootenay - Reinhart
Pref - Reinhart
Likelihood - Reinhart...Edmonton should steamroll the Ice and will the elder Reinhart would be a lock to make the team, the very young Sam Reinhart will get debated heavily on whether or not they will bring someone so young on board.  Depending on what other forwards are available elsewhere, Reinhart could just crack the squad.

Moose Jaw - Morgan Rielly
Regina - Morgan Klimchuk, Chandler Stephenson
Pref - Rielly
Likelihood - No Rielly even if Regina manages to upset the number 2 seed Warriors as he is still injured.  Klimchuk and Stephenson are nice to debate, but have little hope of making the final roster.

Medicine Hat - Hunter Shinkaruk
Saskatoon - Ryan Olsen, Dalton Thrower
Pref - Shinkaruk.  Who wouldn't want one of the best offensive players available for next year's NHL draft.
Likelihood - An upset is possible here, but unlikely.  Thrower is injured but word is he could be back and would be a welcome addition to this team.  Olsen has been up and down but could find himself with consideration in the bottom 3-4 forwards for the team.

OHL
London - Andreas Athanasiou
Windsor - Kerby Rychel, Chris Marchese
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Top seed London rolls on.  Kerby Rychel has been one of the most surprising prospects of the season and it all started with his breakout performance in Canada's colors at the Ivan Hlinka.  He would be a lock to rejoin the squad.  Marchese has been inconsistent but his high energy and physical play could be a welcome addition as well.

Plymouth - Tom Wilson
Guelph - Matt Finn, Scott Kosmachuk
Pref - Guelph
Likelihood - Guelph falls to Plymouth.  Finn and Kosmachuk are virtual locks to be named to the team.  If Guelph prevails, Wilson also would be a lock.

Kitchener - Matia Marcantuoni
Owen Sound - Gemel Smith, Jarrod Maidens
Pref - Owen Sound
Likelihood - Maidens would be a lock, but since he has barely played all year, safe to assume he is out.  Smith's work ethic and small offensive upside are very difficult to match up against and he can really inspire a team with his play.  Smith would be a lock.  An injury riddled season have left a lot of questions around Marcantuoni.

Sarnia - none
Saginaw - none

Niagra - Jesse Graham
Oshawa - Scott Laughton, Daniel Altshuler
Pref - Oshawa
Likelihood - Oshawa falls to high powered Niagra, Laughton shores up a strong 2nd line for Canada, Altshuler enters the goalie debate.  It likely comes down to him, Murray and Tremblay for 2 spots.

Ottawa - Sean Monahan
Belleville - Brenden Gaunce
Pref - Slight lean to Monahan
Likelihood - Canada gets their top line center from this series.  Belleville seems poised for a potential upset, Monahan tears up tournament and garners serious hype for next year's draft.

Barrie - Aaron Ekblad
Mississauga - none
Pref - Barrie to fall
Likelihood - Barrie doesn't fall.  Ekblad would be a great addition to the backend for Canada and would seize the opportunity, but it doesn't look like it will be this year.

Brampton - none
Sudbury - Matthew Campagna
Pref - Blujus
Likelihood - Campagna's Wolves fall to the Battalion and Campagna finds himself as one of the last players to make the team, or the first not to make the team.

QMJHL
Saint John - none
Cape Breton - William Carrier
Pref - Cape Breton
Likelihood - It would be a moder day miracle if 16th seed Cape Breton took down the reigning Memorial Cup champs.  Carrier is one of only a handful of players in the Q who would really have a shot at cracking team Canada as it is.  Expect him to be there.

Shawinigan - none
Rouyn-Noranda - Dillon Fournier (injured)
Pref - Fournier
Likelihood - Even with the likelihood that they will fall to the far superior Cataractes, Fournier will have his work cut out for himself to make the Canadian squad, but stranger things have happened.
EDIT - Fournier is out with a shoulder injury and likely isn't able to recover in time to participate.

Blainville-Boisbriand - none
Gatineau - none

Victoriaville - Brandon Whitney
Baie Comeau - Felix Girard
Pref - Wash
Likelihood - Baie Comeau falls, Girard still doesn't make the team.

Quebec - none
Drummondville - Dominic Graham
Pref - Graham to improve the goalie pool
Likelihood - It won't matter, Graham, while talented, can't push one of the other names out.

Halifax - Nathan MacKinnon
Moncton - none
Pref - The young superstar in the making
Likelihood - MacKinnon could have made the WJC squad, but it's not likely he will get his shot to suit up for Canada here as the Mooseheads are poised to roll through Moncton.

Rimouski - none
Val d'Or - Anthony Mantha, Matt Murphy
Pref - Val d'Or
Likelihood - Neither Mantha or Murphy are on the radar enough as of yet to earn a spot on Canada, but watch out for both moving forward.

Chicoutimi - Charles Hudon
Acadie Bathurst - Christophe Lalancette
Pref - Hudon to run the offense
Likelihood - Lalancette gets added to the mix as one of the very few Q league players who could actually stand a chance to make the team.


If I had to predict the squad, I imagine it will look something like this:

Forwards
Monahan, Bourke, Smith
Rychel, Laughton, Kosmachuk
Carierre, Winther, Lalancette
Magee, Reinhart, Rigby
Bubble: Troock, Campagna, Hodges

Defense
Dumba, Finn
Pelech, Pulock
Curcuruto, Severson
Thrower - if healthy
Bubble - Morrissey

Goaltenders
Murray, Tremblay
Bubble - Altshuler, Graham

2 comments:

  1. Dillon Fournier won't be available for this tournament.
    He's done for the season and requires shoulder surgery.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks for the reminder, I will make an appropriate edit!

    ReplyDelete